George Allen Miller One Geek's take on all things SciFi

Singularity Event only 50% by 2050? WTF?

04.29.2011 · Posted in Current Events, Singularity Event

In a recent article on http://www.kurzweilai.net they have some numbers that are down right depressing. Only a 10% chance of machines reaching human level intelligence by 2028 and 50% by 2050. What is that about? I don’t know about you but I’m somewhat pissed about it.

Why do you ask? It’s simple. When machines gain human level intelligence we can ask them, “hey in there, tell us how to be 25 forever or we’ll pour scotch on the rocks into your main frame for relentlessly beating us at chess”, you go MacReady!

Yes, I, like many other people, are longing for the day when the human lifespan is extended to hundreds and thousands of years. I fully intend to build a nice big spacious space ship and sail away to the nearest planet and setup a new colony world, bringing with me many thousands of bottles of scotch and tons of video games.

Seriously though, it’s going to get really friggin cool in the next century. So cool that I just don’t want to miss anything. You think technology is cool now? In a few decades it will be magical. I have been on the optimistic side of the fence on this one. I’ve tried to tell myself that by 2030 we’d be just about there. Now I hear that there’s only a ten percent chance of this from the oracle himself, Kurzweil. Well piss on a river.

I suppose there’s still Kurzweil’s hop scotch idea. That we get to 2030 and can extend our lives by 30-40 years and then get to the next point. Surely with everything we are seeing these days in technology and medicine it’s looking like that may be a real possibility.

Still, hearing of timelines being pushed back is as bad as waiting for George R. R. Martin to finish his damn series. We still have a 10% shot at hitting the mark in 17 years, which isn’t so bad. I honestly think that’s going to be a bit higher. There are too many companies pushing the computer envelope, especially smaller mobile computing, to think it’s going to be a long time. Quantum computing is really where it’s at and we’ll be there in 10 years or so. At least that’s the hope on this end!

Link to the original article: http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll

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